Oct 13, 2021

Toronto and Ontario COVID-19 Outlook - updated October 13th 2021

While our Toronto clinic continues to be impacted by the Covid 19 siege, and our staff and clients continue to practice physical distancing, we thought that we would do our own analyses of the Covid 19 case information available to give us some insight into when life will return to some semblance of normalcy.

We hope that the charts below will help you to see the light at the end of the tunnel and help you to make the right choices for your business, your career, and your family. We will do our best to update this information daily.

Trailing 7 Days Total New Confirmed Cases - From April 1, 2020

Is COVID-19 Reversing in Toronto and Ontario?

This graph compares the total new cases for the trailing 7 days to each immediately preceding trailing 7 day period. This is a better measure of how the total new confirmed cases are trending over successive 7 day periods rather than looking at calendar week over week changes.

Since Toronto’s new low of 172 cases on July 13, Toronto’s 7-day total cases increased to 670 for a 286% increase. Ontario's (excluding Toronto) 7-day total cases increased from 979 to 2,833 for a 189% increase.

What to look for - when the trailing 7 days total new confirmed cases starts to trend downwards, consistently for at least 7 days. This indicates that while new cases are still occurring we are getting fewer new cases for each 7 day period.

Ontario and Toronto Covid 19 Trailing 7 Days Total New Cases

Toronto Covid 19 Charts:


(1) Infection, Hospitalization and Death - what to take note of: (i) All age brackets 20 and over have substantial infection risk - no age bracket is spared; (ii) there is a higher risk of hospitalization from COVID-19 (indicating a more serious case) in age brackets 50 and over; and (iii) there is a higher risk of death in age brackets 60 and over.

Will there be an emerging discussion on whether the return to work can occur sooner for employees in lower-risk age brackets 49 and below? How do you prevent cross infection from the lower death-risk younger age brackets to the higher death-risk older age brackets living in the same household, or working side by side?

Toronto Covid 19 Infection, Hospitalization & Death Risk

(2) Total Confirmed Cases - what to look for:  when the line graph begins to deviate from its upward trend and starts to flatten (appearing to take on a horizontal slope); this means there are now fewer confirmed cases from the day before. The ideal scenario would be for the line to continue to flatten without any sudden upward spikes later on. 

Toronto Covid 19 Total Confirmed Cases - Prior 14 Days Trend

(3) Daily Increase in Confirmed Cases - what to look for: that the day over day increases in confirmed cases are becoming smaller with a downward trend to zero daily new cases.

Toronto Covid 19 Daily Increase - Prior 14 Days Trend

(4) Daily % Increase in Confirmed Cases - what to look for: that the day over day percentage increases in confirmed cases are becoming smaller with a downward trend to zero percent.

Toronto Covid 19 Daily Increase % - Prior 14 Days Trend

Ontario (excluding Toronto) Covid 19 Charts:


(1) Total Confirmed Cases - what to look for: when the line graph begins to deviate from its upward trend and starts to flatten (appearing to take on a horizontal slope); this means there are now fewer confirmed cases from the day before. The ideal scenario would be for the line to continue to flatten without any sudden upward spikes later on.

Ontario excl Toronto Covid 19 Total Confirmed Cases - Prior 14 Days Trend

(2) Daily Increase in Confirmed Cases - what to look for: that the day over day increases in confirmed cases are becoming smaller with a downward trend to zero daily new cases.

Ontario excl Toronto - Covid 19 Daily Increase - Prior 14 Days Trend

(3) Daily % Increase in Confirmed Cases - what to look for: that the day over day percentage increases in confirmed cases are becoming smaller with a downward trend to zero percent.

Ontario excl Toronto - Covid 19 Daily Increase % - Prior 14 Days Trend

Ontario Overall:

(1) Total Confirmed vs Total Recovered - what to look for: that the gap between total confirmed (red line) and total recovered (blue line) is becoming narrower.  If you see the green line start to go horizontal and then downwards that is a good sign as it means more people are recovering versus the number being newly infected.  If you see the green line start to go upwards that is a bad sign as it means that there are now more new infections than recoveries. The first turning point in Ontario was April 24 when the gap was at its widest with total confirmed cases of 13,995 and total recovered of 7,509 for a gap of 6,486 cases.

Ontario Covid 19 Total Confirmed vs Total Recovered

(2) Infection and Death - what to take note of: (i) All age brackets 20 and over have substantial infection risk - no age bracket is spared; and (ii) there is a higher risk of death in age brackets 60 and over. How do you prevent cross infection from the lower death-risk younger age brackets to the higher death-risk older age brackets living in the same household, or working side by side?